Trump Immigration Policy in a Second Term: What Families and Employers Need to Know

For families pursuing immigration benefits and companies employing international talent, understanding potential immigration policy shifts under a second Trump administration is crucial. This analysis examines likely changes based on:

1. The extensive volume of immigration-related actions implemented from 2017–2021, ranging from executive orders to regulatory changes.
2. Current campaign statements and policy proposals that outline potential priorities.
3. Key reversals and adjustments made by the Biden administration, which may face significant rollback.

This analysis aims to provide actionable insights for three key groups:

• Foreign nationals on work visas or green card pathways: Preparing for employment-related changes.
• Families pursuing immigration benefits: Navigating financial and procedural hurdles.
• Employers and HR professionals managing corporate immigration programs: Planning for compliance and hiring challenges.

Core Policy Categories and Impacts

Employment-Based Immigration

During his first term, Trump’s policies reshaped employment-based immigration, introducing stricter wage thresholds, compliance measures, and eligibility criteria. Biden rolled back many of these restrictions, but a second Trump term could see their return, with amplified enforcement.

Policy Area	Trump’s First Term	Biden Administration Changes	What to Expect in Trump’s Second Term
H-1B Wage Requirements	Increased wage thresholds for H-1B visas	Reverted to previous wage calculations	Higher prevailing wage requirements
Specialty Occupation Definition	Restricted definitions	Broadened interpretations	Narrower job qualification criteria
Worker Entry Suspensions	Suspended entry for certain workers	Lifted entry restrictions	Potential new restrictions
Deference to Prior Approvals	Eliminated deference to prior cases	Restored deference policy	Likely elimination of deference
Compliance Reviews	Increased site visits and audits	Reduced audit pressure	Enhanced compliance reviews and audits
OPT and STEM OPT	Heightened scrutiny	Expanded and preserved programs	Likely stricter compliance and oversight
H-4 Employment Authorization	Threatened removal	Preserved work authorization	Likely elimination of H-4 EADs
EB-5 Investor Program	Introduced additional scrutiny and delays	Stabilized program but backlogs persisted	Increased compliance and documentation burdens

Policy Details:

• Trump’s First Term: Wage hikes for H-1B and employment-based visas, plus narrow definitions of specialty occupations, disproportionately impacted IT and STEM fields.
• Biden’s Adjustments: Rolled back wage calculations and broadened job definitions, stabilizing hiring processes.
• Potential Future Changes: Higher wage thresholds and stricter eligibility criteria for OPT and STEM OPT programs could raise costs for employers and reduce work opportunities for students.

For Foreign Workers:

• Challenge: Stricter interpretations of specialty occupation could disproportionately affect H-1B renewals and extensions.
• Opportunity: Planning ahead with detailed job descriptions and stronger supporting documentation can mitigate risks.

For Employers:

• Challenge: Increased compliance audits will demand thorough recordkeeping.
• Opportunity: Use proactive audits and detailed job postings to align with anticipated enforcement.

Family-Based Immigration

Family-based immigration faced significant restrictions under Trump, particularly through the Public Charge Rule and universal interview mandates. Biden’s adjustments eased these burdens, but Trump’s potential second term could restore barriers.

Policy Area	Trump’s First Term	Biden Administration Changes	What to Expect in Trump’s Second Term
Public Charge Rule	Introduced extensive financial proof for applicants	Rescinded rule and returned to prior guidance	Likely reinstatement and expansion of the Public Charge Rule
Mandatory Adjustment Interviews	Required interviews for nearly all family-based adjustment applicants	Implemented interview waivers for eligible applicants	Universal interview requirements likely reinstated
Sponsor Income Requirements	Increased income requirements for sponsors	Restored previous thresholds	Higher financial thresholds for sponsors
Form I-944 (Declaration of Self-Sufficiency)	Required detailed financial documentation	Form eliminated	Reinstatement with additional requirements
Processing Delays	Increased due to additional administrative hurdles	Streamlined processing in some cases	Greater delays due to heightened scrutiny
Restrictions on Immediate Relatives	Imposed stricter documentation and entry criteria	Relaxed criteria for processing	Potential new entry barriers for immediate relatives
Affidavit of Support Requirements	Required additional documentation and liability	Simplified requirements	Likely return to stricter documentation
K-1 Fiancé(e) Visas	Slower processing and increased RFEs	Stabilized processing but with ongoing delays	Possible policy to further restrict or scrutinize applications
Mixed-Status Families	Imposed restrictions on benefits eligibility	Expanded eligibility for some benefits	Likely increased restrictions for mixed-status families
Waivers for Grounds of Inadmissibility	Made obtaining waivers more difficult	Simplified processes for hardship waivers	Stricter eligibility criteria for hardship waivers

Policy Details:

• Trump’s First Term: Universal adjustment interviews created bottlenecks, and heightened sponsor income requirements excluded middle-income families.
• Biden’s Adjustments: Simplified sponsor requirements and reduced processing times by introducing interview waivers for low-risk applicants.
• Potential Future Changes: Reinstatement of stricter sponsor thresholds and the Public Charge Rule may create barriers for many families, particularly those reliant on dual incomes.

For Families:

• Challenge: Families with mixed immigration statuses may face stricter rules limiting benefits and sponsorship options.
• Opportunity: Early preparation of financial documents, such as credit histories and income verification, can ease the process.

Entry and Admissions Policies

Trump’s administration prioritized national security, imposing travel bans and enhanced vetting. Biden reversed these measures, focusing on streamlined entry. A second Trump term could reintroduce stricter controls.

Policy Area	Trump’s First Term	Biden Administration Changes	What to Expect in Trump’s Second Term
Travel Bans	Imposed bans on multiple predominantly Muslim and African countries	Rescinded all travel bans	Potential expansion to new regions, targeting countries deemed “high risk”
Enhanced Vetting Procedures	Introduced rigorous vetting processes	Streamlined vetting processes	More stringent vetting with expanded security measures
Documentation Requirements	Required additional proof for visas and petitions	Reduced documentation requirements	Reimposed additional documentary proof requirements
Social Media Screening	Mandated review of applicants’ social media	Limited use of social media screening	Broader and more invasive social media screening policies
Refugee and Asylee Admissions	Slashed admission caps for refugees	Increased refugee caps and processing	Further reduced refugee admissions with restrictive eligibility criteria
Travel Waivers	Difficult to obtain for individuals from banned countries	Simplified waiver processes	Stricter criteria for travel waivers and exceptions
Entry Restrictions on Immigrant and Nonimmigrant Workers	Suspended entry of certain employment-based visa holders (H-1B, L-1) during COVID-19	Removed restrictions	Likely reintroduction of entry suspensions for certain visa categories
Public Health-Based Entry Rules	Invoked Title 42 to expel asylum seekers at borders	Ended Title 42 measures for asylum seekers	Reinstate health-based entry restrictions, including Title 42-like measures
Visa Interview Waivers	Reduced waivers for nonimmigrant visas	Expanded interview waivers	Likely stricter interview waiver eligibility, increasing in-person interviews

Policy Details:

• Trump’s First Term: Policies like mandatory social media screenings and regional travel bans affected millions, disrupting family reunifications and hiring plans.
• Biden’s Adjustments: Eliminated travel bans and focused vetting on high-risk applicants.
• Potential Future Changes: Expanded bans and broader screening measures may disproportionately impact applicants from certain countries.

For Foreign Workers and Families:

• Challenge: Anticipated reinstatement of travel bans and heightened vetting could prolong visa approvals.
• Opportunity: Maintaining consistent online records and providing complete documentation can help reduce processing delays.

Processing and Procedures

Changes to visa processing standards significantly impacted timelines and approval rates under Trump. Biden’s administration worked to normalize processes, but a second Trump term may reverse these improvements.

Policy Area	Trump’s First Term	Biden Administration Changes	What to Expect in Trump’s Second Term
RFEs (Requests for Evidence)	Increased RFEs, especially for employment-based visas	Reduced RFE issuance through policy updates	Likely return to heightened RFE issuance
Processing Times	Lengthened processing times due to increased scrutiny	Improved processing times with staffing and policy changes	Anticipated extended processing timelines
Premium Processing	Limited premium processing availability	Expanded premium processing options	Possible restrictions or suspension of premium processing
Adjudication Standards	Higher denial rates for employment and family-based petitions	Normalized approval rates	More restrictive adjudication criteria
Policy Deference	Rescinded deference to prior approvals	Restored deference to prior decisions	Elimination of deference for petition renewals
Forms and Evidence Burden	Increased complexity and evidence requirements	Simplified and standardized forms	Reinstate burdensome evidence and form requirements
Processing Resources	Limited resource allocation for faster adjudications	Enhanced resources to reduce backlogs	Potential diversion of resources to enforcement
Electronic Filing Systems	Delays in digital transformation, leading to inefficiencies	Expanded electronic filing capabilities	Slow progress or rollback of e-filing systems

Policy Details:

• Trump’s First Term: RFEs surged, and premium processing was suspended for many categories. Processing times grew as deference to prior approvals was eliminated.
• Biden’s Adjustments: Reduced RFEs, expanded premium processing, and resumed deference to prior approvals, improving predictability.
• Potential Future Changes: Anticipated rollbacks could result in longer wait times, higher denial rates, and greater uncertainty.

For Employers:

• Challenge: Increased RFEs and denial rates for H-1B renewals and green card sponsorships could disrupt talent pipelines.
• Opportunity: Strategic planning with your immigration legal team can preemptively address likely areas of concern.

For Families:

• Challenge: More restrictive adjudication criteria could increase rejections for family petitions.
• Opportunity: Detailed and accurate documentation, combined with legal guidance, can mitigate risks.

The Bottom Line: Prepare for Potential Policy Shifts

The second Trump administration presents significant uncertainty for immigration policy, particularly for foreign workers, families, and employers. While restrictive measures and heightened compliance requirements are anticipated, it’s possible to proactively mitigate risks and navigate potential changes effectively.

Understanding historical trends and preparing for specific challenges—such as stricter employment eligibility criteria, elevated financial requirements for families, and increased scrutiny on visa processing—will be essential. By leveraging legal expertise, maintaining thorough documentation, and staying informed about policy updates, individuals and organizations can better safeguard their immigration goals.

Ultimately, while the political landscape may shift, the resilience and preparedness of those impacted can help navigate these challenges.