Election Impact Report: Immigration Policies and Business Implications

Immigration has long been a pivotal issue in U.S. elections, influencing both humanitarian policies and economic strategies. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the stakes are particularly high for businesses reliant on global talent. Employment-based immigration policies — such as H-1B visa approvals, processing times, and compliance measures like E-Verify  — will significantly affect industries including technology, healthcare, agriculture, and engineering. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of how the potential policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could shape U.S. immigration, and what businesses can do to prepare.

Historical Context of Immigration Policies

Obama Administration: During Obama’s tenure, H-1B denial rates averaged just 8%, providing steady access to skilled talent. This stability fueled growth in the tech sector, where companies such as Microsoft and Google heavily relied on international employees.

Trump Administration: In stark contrast, Trump’s enforcement-driven policies disrupted talent pipelines. Denial rates for new petitions peaked at 16% in 2018 due to increased Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and stricter adjudication criteria. Faced with delays and higher legal costs, companies responded by outsourcing roles or building remote teams abroad.

Biden Administration: Biden reversed many of Trump’s restrictions, bringing H-1B denial rates down to 2.2% by 2023. The administration’s focus on reducing backlogs and streamlining processes enabled businesses to reestablish their international hiring efforts and restore talent pipelines.

Overview of Candidates’ Immigration Policies

Kamala Harris’s Approach

Harris aims to build upon the Biden administration’s existing immigration policies, focusing on expanding legal pathways for skilled workers and improving how immigration applications are processed. 

Her proposals include:

• Expanding Employment-Based Visas: Harris has in the past supported increasing the H-1B visa cap and modernizing the visa allocation process, making it easier for businesses in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and engineering to access international talent.
• Making the Immigration System Work Better: Harris plans to improve how the immigration system runs by hiring more staff and upgrading technology at USCIS. These changes aim to make the process smoother and easier to manage, helping people move through the system more efficiently. Her goal is to balance security with expanding legal ways to immigrate, ensuring the system can handle more applications without unnecessary delays or confusion
• Compliance Modernization: Harris supports enhancements to the E-Verify system, which allows employers to verify the employment eligibility of newly hired workers. Through the NextGen initiative, these improvements aim to reduce mismatch rates and lighten compliance burdens, particularly for companies that rely on international talent.

Donald Trump’s Approach

Trump’s expected approach prioritizes stricter enforcement and a reduction in visa availability, picking up where many of his policies left off at the end of his first term.

Key components of his platform to consider include:

• Restrictive H-1B Policies: Lowering the H-1B visa cap, increasing scrutiny on applications through more Requests for Evidence (RFEs), and emphasizing enforcement of the “Buy American, Hire American” executive order.
• Increasing Processing Times: During Trump’s first term, USCIS prioritized enforcement, extending H-1B processing times to nine months and increasing denial rates with more RFEs and audits. If re-elected, similar delays and backlogs are expected.
• Expanded Compliance Measures: Trump’s past policies tightened work eligibility verification by increasing E-Verify audits and compliance checks, placing heavier administrative burdens on businesses. Should this approach resume in 2025, companies could face higher costs and risk penalties for noncompliance, making it essential to allocate resources toward legal and immigration management efforts.

H-1B Visa Approval Rates: Analyzing Trends and Forecasting Outcomes

The H-1B visa is a cornerstone for businesses seeking international talent, particularly in sectors like technology and healthcare. Over the past decade, H-1B approval rates have fluctuated based on policy changes. During Trump’s first term, the approval rate dropped significantly due to increased RFEs and stricter adjudication criteria. Under the Biden administration, approval rates stabilized, and RFEs declined as policies aimed to ease access to international talent.

Future Projections Based on Election Outcome

If Kamala Harris is elected, there will likely be a steady or increasing H-1B approval rate. Her policies would likely expand the cap and reduce the regulatory hurdles businesses face, fostering a more business-friendly environment for international hiring. The graph below illustrates the projected trend based on historical patterns and Harris’s proposed policies (Figure 1).

A Trump victory would likely result in a flattening or decline in H-1B approval rates, as seen during his previous term, coupled with a rise in legal and compliance costs. During his first term, legal expenses increased by an average of 18% due to heightened Requests for Evidence (RFEs) and audits. If re-elected, businesses can expect similar trends, making it more challenging to secure international talent while increasing administrative burdens. Figure 1 highlights the potential flattening in approval rates under Trump’s policies.

Processing Times for Employment-Based Visas

Trends in Visa Processing

Processing times for employment-based visas, including H-1B and L-1, have varied significantly across administrations. Data from USCIS shows that median processing times were longest during the Trump administration due to increased scrutiny and policy changes that slowed adjudications. Under the Biden administration, efforts to reduce backlogs led to improved processing times, which could be maintained or further reduced under a Harris administration.

Projected Impact on Processing Times

Harris Administration: With a focus on expanding resources at USCIS service centers and using technology for faster adjudication, processing times are expected to remain stable or improve, benefiting businesses with predictable hiring timelines.

Trump Administration: Trump’s policies could lead to an increase in median processing times as resources are redirected towards enforcement. Businesses may face long delays, forcing them to find other ways to hire, like training local workers or looking for talent in different locations.

Broader Economic Impact

Immigration policies uniquely shape industries such as technology, healthcare, agriculture, and engineering, with each sector relying on international talent to address specific workforce challenges. In the technology sector, access to highly skilled professionals is critical to sustaining innovation and growth. Companies depend heavily on H-1B visas to fill roles in software development, data science, and cybersecurity. Under a Harris administration, expanded visa availability and streamlined processing would allow tech companies to quickly fill skill gaps, reducing the need for outsourcing or remote teams abroad. In contrast, Trump’s restrictive approach would limit talent access, forcing firms to delay critical projects or increase operational costs by building distributed teams in countries with more favorable immigration policies, like Canada.

The healthcare sector faces a different set of challenges, with chronic staffing shortages and rising demand for medical professionals. Immigration plays a vital role in filling these gaps, particularly in underserved areas that rely on foreign-trained doctors and nurses. Harris’s policies would prioritize reducing backlogs and processing delays, ensuring hospitals can onboard international talent efficiently. On the other hand, a Trump administration would likely create bottlenecks through heightened visa restrictions and audits, exacerbating staff shortages and driving wage inflation. This could increase costs for providers and limit patient care capacity, particularly in rural and specialized healthcare facilities.

For agriculture, where seasonal labor is essential, immigration policies determine whether farms can operate efficiently. The continuation of Biden-Harris expanded H-2A visa programs under a Harris presidency would help mitigate labor shortages, stabilizing production costs and crop yields. However, Trump’s emphasis on stricter visa caps and compliance measures, as seen in the data related to his first term, could disrupt agricultural operations, leading to labor shortages and higher food prices. 

In engineering, international talent fuels complex infrastructure projects, from renewable energy initiatives to aerospace development. A Harris administration’s business-friendly approach would facilitate smoother hiring for these roles, while Trump’s policies could slow project timelines, as firms struggle to secure the talent they need, ultimately impacting U.S. competitiveness in high-tech industries.

Global Talent Competition

The U.S. is in direct competition with countries like Canada, the UK, and Australia to attract top international talent, which fuels innovation and fills essential workforce gaps. Immigration policies not only affect how businesses can hire but also shape where skilled workers choose to live and build their careers. The outcome of the 2024 election will be a turning point for the U.S.’s ability to compete in this race.

While the U.S. offers unique opportunities, stricter immigration policies can create hiring bottlenecks that other countries are ready to exploit. In recent years, Canada, in particular, has become a haven for tech talent displaced by U.S. immigration restrictions, with companies and workers favoring its faster, more predictable visa processes. Similarly, the UK and Germany have used immigration reforms to address labor shortages, especially in healthcare and engineering. These nations offer smoother pathways for international workers, positioning them as appealing alternatives when U.S. policies slow down talent pipelines.

If the U.S. becomes less accessible to international talent, businesses may need to adapt by building remote teams abroad or expanding operations in countries with friendlier immigration frameworks. Tech hubs like Toronto and London could see even more growth, benefiting from U.S. companies’ need to source talent elsewhere.

Ultimately, the election’s outcome will determine whether the U.S. retains its competitive edge in industries reliant on global talent. A slowdown in international hiring would give other countries an advantage, drawing in workers who might otherwise have chosen the U.S. The key question for businesses is whether they will face an environment that encourages international hiring or one that forces them to adjust through outsourcing, offshoring, or distributed workforces.

The global competition for talent is unforgiving, and businesses will need to prepare for both scenarios. The ability to respond quickly to policy changes will be essential for staying competitive, no matter how the immigration landscape shifts.

Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations

The 2024 election will have significant implications for immigration policies, shaping how businesses access global talent and manage workforce planning. Whether policies open doors for international hiring or create new barriers, companies need proactive strategies to stay competitive. Success will depend on flexibility, thoughtful contingency planning, and leveraging the right tools and expertise to navigate a shifting landscape. Below are actionable strategies businesses can implement based on both potential election outcomes.

Strategies If Policies Favor International Hiring

If the election results lead to expanded visa availability and improved processing, businesses will have a unique opportunity to build stronger talent pipelines and grow more rapidly.

• Expand Global Talent Pipelines: Increase recruitment efforts in key international markets (e.g., India, China, EU) and build relationships with global universities and professional networks to access top-tier candidates directly.
• Improve Immigration Management with Technology: Leverage automated immigration software and case management systems to track visa applications, ensure compliance, and reduce manual work for HR teams
• Diversify Visa Strategies: Utilize multiple visa categories (e.g., H-1B, L-1, O-1) and educate hiring managers on visa options to efficiently fill roles while minimizing dependence on a single visa type.
• Align Talent Acquisition with Business Growth: Use workforce planning tools to forecast talent needs and align hiring with growth objectives, taking advantage of faster processing times to fill critical roles proactively.

Strategies If Policies Create Barriers to International Hiring

In a scenario where visa availability is restricted, businesses must be prepared to manage disruptions and find alternative solutions to address their workforce needs.

• Leverage Alternate Visas and Reskill Internal Talent: Utilize less-restricted visa categories like L-1 for intracompany transfers and invest in reskilling programs to build internal talent pipelines, reducing dependency on external hires.
• Outsource Compliance Management to Experts: Partner with immigration service providers to manage complex visa compliance, audits, and automate tasks like E-Verify to mitigate noncompliance risks and avoid penalties.
• Monitor Policy Changes and Stay Agile: Implement a policy tracking process and maintain relationships with immigration advisors to quickly adapt to regulatory shifts and gain early insights into upcoming changes

Core Strategies for Success in Any Scenario

Regardless of the election outcome, businesses must prepare to operate in a competitive global environment by adopting agile workforce strategies and proactive planning.

• Strengthen Employer Brand for Global Hiring: Position your organization as an inclusive, globally-minded employer by promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives to attract top talent from diverse backgrounds.
• Adopt Flexible Workforce Models: Utilize a mix of on-site, remote, and distributed workforce models, and expand operations into regions with favorable immigration policies to build hubs and reduce risks.
• Use Workforce Analytics to Guide Talent Strategy: Analyze visa processing trends and integrate immigration data with HR platforms to make data-driven hiring decisions and accurately forecast workforce needs.
• Prepare for Long-Term Uncertainty: Build diverse talent pipelines and maintain agility in workforce planning to adapt to regulatory changes and withstand policy fluctuations.

The ability to attract and retain international talent will remain a critical factor for business success, no matter the election outcome. Companies that build flexibility into their hiring strategies and develop contingency plans will be best positioned to thrive in a changing landscape. Whether policies open up new opportunities or introduce challenges, businesses must be proactive in managing immigration processes, staying informed of regulatory developments, and optimizing talent acquisition strategies.

By leveraging technology, outsourcing compliance where necessary, and fostering a globally minded workforce, businesses can navigate the complexities of immigration and remain competitive in the global talent race.

About the Data

The following public sources were used:

• USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub

Provides official data on H-1B visa petitions, approvals, denials, and RFEs by fiscal year.

USCIS H-1B Data Hub

• USCIS Case Processing Times Tool

Tracks real-time processing times for H-1B, L-1, and other visa types by service center.

USCIS Processing Times

• USCIS H-1B Characteristics Report FY 2022

Offers insights into H-1B visa trends, including approval rates, denial rates, and processing timelines.

H-1B Characteristics Report

• CRS (Congressional Research Service) Reports

Provides independent analysis of U.S. immigration policies and their impacts.

CRS Reports

• Migration Policy Institute (MPI)

Offers independent studies on global migration and visa policy impacts on labor markets.

MPI Reports

• OECD Data

Tracks economic trends, including the relationship between labor migration and GDP growth.

OECD Data

• World Bank Data

Offers global economic indicators, including migration data and its effect on economic performance.

World Bank Data

• Canada Immigration

Provides details on Canada’s visa and immigration programs.

Government of Canada

• UK Government Immigration

Offers guidance on work visas and immigration policies in the UK.

UK Visas and Immigration

• Australian Government Immigration

Provides information on Australia’s immigration system, including work visas.

Australia Immigration